China economists flag GDP slowdown despite Beijing’s ‘bright future’ talk

HONG KONG — New economic forecasts for China show Beijing’s efforts to promote an optimistic narrative have not shaken predictions of a long-term slowdown, with the growth rate seen sinking well below 5%.

A survey of 31 economists, jointly conducted by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News in March, revealed an average projection of 4.7% growth in 2024. This is marginally up from the 4.6% rate they forecast in a December survey but lower than Beijing’s official target of “around 5%” announced at the National People’s Congress in early March. Twenty-seven of the economists predicted growth below 5%, mainly pointing to the sluggish housing market and a lack of sufficient policies to stimulate demand.

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