US March ADP employment +184K vs +148K expected


ADP employment

The median change in annual pay:

  • Job stayers 5.1% versus 5.1% last month
  • Job changers 10.1% versus 7.6% last month

This is the best reading since July and has led to some modest USD bids and Treasury selling. The largest increases were in construction, financial services and manufacturing. The South and West regions were the top hirers.

This adds some upside risks to non-farm payrolls but the two surveys haven’t exactly been aligned.

“March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them. The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing. Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.



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