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The U.S. Leading Indicator Index fell 0.3% to 102.4 in March, the -0.1% decrease expected and the 0.2% increase in February (revised from +0.1%).
“February’s uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.”
Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the index retreated by 2.2%, a smaller decrease than the 3.4% slump over the prior six months.
The Conference Board still expects U.S. GDP growth to moderate over Q2 and Q3 as rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and persistent inflation pressures continue to hinder consumer spending.